Update on Coronavirus (Covid-19)

What is Covid-19?

The 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic is an ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

The outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, declared to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020, and recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020.

As of 14 April 2020, more than 1.92 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported in 210 countries and territories, resulting in more than 119,000 deaths. More than 453,000 people have recovered, although there may be a possibility of relapse or reinfection. The case fatality rate was estimated to be 4 per cent in China, but varies significantly between countries.

The virus is primarily spread between people during close contact, often via small droplets produced by coughing, sneezing, or talking. While these droplets are projected into the air upon exhalation, they usually fall to the ground or onto surfaces rather than being infectious over long distances. People may also become infected by touching a contaminated surface and then their face. The virus can survive on surfaces for up to 72 hours. It is most contagious during the first three days after the onset of symptoms, although spread may be possible before symptoms appear and in later stages of the disease. Common symptoms include fever, cough and shortness of breath. Complications may include pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. The time from exposure to onset of symptoms is typically around five days, but may range from two to fourteen days. There is no known vaccine or specific antiviral treatment. Primary treatment is symptomatic and supportive therapy.

How to prevent the spread of Covid-19?

Recommended preventive measures include:

1.  hand washing,
2.  covering one's mouth when coughing or sneezing,
3.  maintaining social distancing from other people, and
4.  monitoring and self-isolation for people who suspect they are infected.

Authorities worldwide have responded by implementing travel restrictions, quarantines, curfews and stay-at-home orders, workplace hazard controls, and facility closures.

Effect of the pandemic

The pandemic has led to severe global socioeconomic disruption, the postponement or cancellation of sporting, religious, political and cultural events, and widespread shortages of supplies exacerbated by panic buying. Schools, universities and colleges have closed either on a nationwide or local basis in 197 countries, affecting approximately 99.9 per cent of the world's student population.

Misinformation about the virus has spread online, and there have been incidents of xenophobia and discrimination against Chinese people and against those perceived as being Chinese or as being from areas with high infection rates.

Some positive effect of the pandemic

Due to reduced travel and closures of heavy industry, there has been a decrease in air pollution and carbon emissions.

Source of first case

Health authorities in Wuhan, China (the capital of Hubei province), reported a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown cause on 31 December 2019, and an investigation was launched in early January 2020. The cases mostly had links to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market and so the virus is thought to have a zoonotic origin. The virus that caused the outbreak is known as SARS-CoV-2, a newly discovered virus closely related to bat coronaviruses, pangolin coronaviruses, and SARS-CoV.

Discovery and Symptoms

The earliest known person with symptoms was later discovered to have fallen ill on 1 December 2019, and that person did not have visible connections with the later wet market cluster. Of the early cluster of cases reported in December 2019, two-thirds were found to have a link with the market. On 13 March 2020, an unverified report from the South China Morning Post suggested a case traced back to 17 November 2019, in a 55-year-old from Hubei province, may have been the first.

Cases Analysis so far

Cases refers to the number of people who have been tested for COVID-19, and whose test has been confirmed positive according to official protocols. As of 12 April, the countries that made public their testing data have on average tested only 1 per cent of their population, while no country has tested more than 10 per cent of its population. Many countries have had official policies not to test those with only mild symptoms, such as Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland. An analysis of the early phase of the outbreak up to 23 January estimated 86 per cent of COVID-19 infections had not been detected, and that these undocumented infections were the infection source for 79 per cent of documented cases. Several other statistical studies, using a variety of methods, have estimated that numbers of infections in many countries were considerably greater than the reported cases. Preliminary results of testing in the German town of Heinsberg, released on 9 April, found that fifteen percent of people tested had apparent immunity to SARS-COV-2.

Analysis by age in China indicates that a relatively low proportion of cases occur in individuals under 20 years of age.

However, it is not yet clear whether this is because young people are actually less likely to be infected, or less likely to develop serious symptoms, and thus seek medical attention and be tested.
Initial estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in January were between 1.4 and 2.5, but a subsequent statistical analysis has concluded that it may be much higher.